U.S. Officials and the Fall of the Shah

U.S. Officials and the Fall of the Shah : Some Safe Contraction Interpretations

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Unlike the dominant trend in cognitive approach to foreign policy, the approach in this book is not guided by reflections in psychology. Like part of Jervis's work, it is inspired by reflections concerning the philosophy of science; yet not by Kuhn's or those of its most well-known critics, but by some more recent and formal reflections known as the AGM theory. The AGM theory, proposed in the 1980's by Alchourron, Gardenfors, and Makinson, is the core of a most dynamic branch of logic, focusing on belief change. It has produced impressive formal results, with echoes in artificial intelligence, database management, and decision and game theory. This book shows how it can be used in political science. The book includes three parts. Part One is a twenty-page review of the AGM theory, avoiding a number of pitfalls, inaccuracies, and misunderstandings that are common elsewhere. Part Two is a review of U.S.-Iranian relations under the reign of the last shah, focusing on the last years of monarchy, and including an unconventional interpretation of U.S. intelligence performance in 1978.
The essential part is Part Three, where an AGM model is tested, and intriguing results obtained in connection with U.S. perceptions of the Iranian revolution.
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Product details

  • Hardback | 202 pages
  • 154.94 x 231.14 x 17.78mm | 340.19g
  • Lanham, MD, United States
  • English
  • 0739133403
  • 9780739133408

Table of contents

Chapter 1 Introduction Part 2 Part One. Theory Chapter 3 I. Concepts Chapter 4 II. First Constructions Chapter 5 III. Further Constructions Part 6 Part Two. History Chapter 7 IV. U.S. Involvement in Iran, 1941-68 Chapter 8 V. U.S. reliance on the shah, 1969-76 Chapter 9 VI. End of an Alliance, 1977-78 Part 10 Part Three. Application Chapter 11 VII. Choices Chapter 12 VIII. Sullivan's Opinions Chapter 13 IX. Safe Contraction Interpretations concerning Sullivan Chapter 14 X. Brzezinski's Opinions Chapter 15 Safe Contraction Interpretations concerning Brzezinski Chapter 16 XII. Safe Contraction Interpretations concerning Ball Part 17 Conclusion
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Review quote

Bridging the gap between logical and empirical approaches to opinion formation, Dr. Brotons' innovative book introduces formal models from philosophical logic into social science and applies those models to the US perception of the Iran crisis that led to the fall of the Shah. The result is a precise, fine-grained and illuminating account of belief change in politics. -- Erik J. Olsson, Chair in Theoretical Philosophy, Lund University
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About Jean-Charles Brotons

Jean-Charles Brotons was a lecturer and researcher at the University of Geneva (Switzerland), and now managing director of Arta Studio (Tehran, Iran).
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