The Black Swan

The Black Swan : The Impact of the Highly Improbable

3.93 (80,467 ratings by Goodreads)

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The phenomenal international bestseller that shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty

What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper?

This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them.

'Taleb is a bouncy and even exhilarating guide ... I came to relish what he said, and even develop a sneaking affection for him as a person' Will Self, Independent on Sunday

'He leaps like some superhero of the mind' Boyd Tonkin, Independent
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Product details

  • Paperback | 480 pages
  • 129 x 198 x 27mm | 349g
  • London, United Kingdom
  • English
  • Trade Paperback
  • 0141034599
  • 9780141034591
  • 3,482

Review Text

A fascinating study of how we are regularly taken for suckers by the unexpected Guardian
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Review quote

The most prophetic voice of all * GQ * Great fun... brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious, cajoling -- Stephen J. Dubner, co-author of Freakonomics The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works -- Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow Confirms his status as a guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and aspirant despot * Sunday Times * It has altered modern thinking * The Times * Like the conversation of a raconteur ... hugely enjoyable - compelling * Financial Times * A fascinating study of how we are regularly taken for suckers by the unexpected * Guardian *
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About Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an uncompromizing no-nonsense thinker for our times. He has spent his life immersing himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge, and he has led three high-profile careers around his ideas, as a man of letters, as a businessman-trader, and as a university professor and researcher. He is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University's School of Engineering. He is the author of the 4-volume INCERTO (Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and The Bed of Procrustes). Taleb refuses all awards and honours as they debase knowledge by turning it into competitive sports.
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Rating details

80,467 ratings
3.93 out of 5 stars
5 35% (27,919)
4 36% (28,787)
3 20% (16,353)
2 6% (5,141)
1 3% (2,267)
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