Publications of the American Statistical Association Volume 3, Nos. 17-24
This historic book may have numerous typos and missing text. Purchasers can download a free scanned copy of the original book (without typos) from the publisher. Not indexed. Not illustrated. 1893 edition. Excerpt: ...is far-fetched. Indeed, the next refinement would be the abolition of all rates, because no census, whether state or national, can be absolutely correct. Rates based upon one stated census for a period of years would be worse than useless, for they must be invariably false, since the population for different years is never the same. In all countries it is generally admitted that the population may be supposed to increase during a certain time at the same rate, as it did during the preceding intercensal period, although this of course cannot be strictly estimated where there is a moving population due to migration. Estimates are approximate, however, and serve to show the general increase of population with sufficient accuracy for comparison. Thus, in the Registration report of England for 1890, the Registrar furnishes the following table, in order to show the small divergence between death rates per 1000, derived from estimates of population based upon the preceding intercensal rate of increase and those derived by regular increase of the population, as shown by a later census: --From this table it is seen that the differences between original estimates and those based upon a later census are in no case greater than.35 per 1000 (the rate for 1890 is based in the report for that year upon the census of 1891), or about one death in 3000 persons, and such a difference may, for all practical purposes, be disregarded. Now, while statisticians of all countries are agreed that estimates based upon rates of increase during the last intercensal period are legitimate, there is a variety of methods employed to get these rates of increase. In a country where births exceed the deaths the population should increase by regular geometrical ratio, like compound..
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