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During Alan Greenspan's tenure at the US Federal Reserve Board the US economy has consistently outperformed expectations. Greenspan has not been panicked by recessionary pressures and has held faith in the view that, despite short term setbacks, the world economy is locked into a steady long-term upward cycle and is about to enter another "Golden Age" comparable to that of the late-19th century. The world's rapid recovery from the 1998 Asian crisis supports the theory almost conclusively and has drawn considerable interest from the world's financial and business community. This volume explains the theory, presents its historical context, shows how Greenspan has harnessed it, and predicts how the "Golden Age" might develop.
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Product details

  • Book | 208 pages
  • 156 x 234 x 22mm | 459.99g
  • London, United Kingdom
  • 0749432241
  • 9780749432249

Table of contents

Part 1 The marvellous clock: the theory of the long cycle; long waves of prices, production and debt; the test of history and the pressure of the current state of affairs. Part 2 The magnificent parallels between third and fourth cycle - why or depression is gone or waning: the stagflation years - the 1910s versus the seventies; parallel between the 1920s and the 1980s - variations on the "bubble years" theme; the crash of 1990 or implosion of the Japanese bubble as a remote echo of the crash of 1929; parallel between the 1930s and the 1990s - the negative side of creative destruction. Part 3 Creative destruction or the positive side of depression: depression, myths and realities - present relevance of the depression concept; deleveraging, and the ideal of popular capitalism; hints that the downwave is over or waning. Epilogue: US - Greenspan's ongoing upwave; Japan - Tsugino upwave is in the offing; China - the next upwave. Appendices: modelling the relationship between the business cycle and interest rates; interview in Paris-Match of August 2, 1990.
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