'Gardner displays the best virtues of his profession: compelling storytelling backed up by hard facts gleaned from specialist research' Guardian
In 2007, experts said it would be smooth sailing in 2008; then came the global financial hurricane. In 2008, as oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later, it plunged to $30. This is how it always goes. In the 1960s, experts said the Soviet economy would be bigger than the American economy by 1997; in 1997, the Soviet Union did not exist. In 1911, experts declared there would be no more major wars; we all know how that turned out.
Let's face it: experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask
them to predict the future - everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.show more