Financial Forecasting for Business and Economics

Financial Forecasting for Business and Economics

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Until recently a formidable gap separated practical business economists, who forecast economic growth and exchange and interest rate fluctuations, from academic researchers. Academic journals focused on statistical techniques which were inappropriate for practical business forecasting. Economic theory, especially in the field of business cycle research, became more and more abstract and harder to apply. These twin developments drove many practitioners to technical analysis. Fortunately, the gap is being bridged. New scholarly research offers more scope for useful forecasts of exchange rates and stock market indices. Advances in statistics, especially the estimation of Kalman filters, allow for better treatment of non-stationary variables. In a clear and readable manner, Financial Forecasting for Business and Economics summarizes the important new thinking on financial market forecasting and the statistical modeling of non-stationary series. The first four chapters deal with forecasting economic and financial indicators.
Separate chapters further discuss forecasting economic growth, stock market indices, exchange rates, and the relationship between short and long term interest rates. Throughout the book, real-life examples are offered with data from a variety of countries and sources. Additionally, the author provides a supplemental IBM disk, available through a tear-out card, which amplifies key examples in the book.
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Product details

  • Paperback | 224 pages
  • 175.3 x 240.8 x 16.3mm | 423g
  • Academic Press Inc
  • San Diego, United States
  • English
  • index
  • 0121128903
  • 9780121128906

Review quote

"Readers who have a basic familiarity with basic statistical concepts will use this book to learn through practical examples the pitfalls to avoid in economic and financial forecasting and how to construct a reliable and sensible forecasting model." --JASA
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Table of contents

Introduction. Analysis of a Single Time Series. Analysis of Multivariate Time Series. Introducing the Multivariate Kalman Filter. Forecasting Economic Growth. Forecasting with the Term Structure of Interest Rates. Forecasting Returns on the Stock Market Index. Forecasting Exchanges Rates. Four Econometric Fashions and the Kalman Filter Alternative. Bibliography Subject Index.
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