Economic Cycles; Their Law and Cause

Economic Cycles; Their Law and Cause

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This historic book may have numerous typos and missing text. Purchasers can download a free scanned copy of the original book (without typos) from the publisher. Not indexed. Not illustrated. 1914 edition. Excerpt: ... the actual price for 1912 from the percentage variation as calculated from the law of demand will be between == 2 (15.92), or 31.84 per cent. The calculated percentage change in the price for 1912 was a fall of 13.06 per cent.; the actual fall was 21.20 per cent., giving a difference of 7.14 per cent. The precision with which the linear law of demand may be used for the prediction of the price of corn in the United States justifies the belief that for some purposes it is unnecessary to seek a greater degree of accuracy than is afforded by the simple linear laws. But it is well to be able to reach the maximum degree of precision, and for this reason we have fitted, to the data of the Tables in the Appendix, the more complex curves y = a+bx--cx--dx, the graphs of which, in case of the representative commodities corn, hay, oats, and potatoes, are given in Figures 17, 18, 19, 20. What is the gain in precision when the more complex curve is substituted for the simple straight line? The scatter of the observations about the straight line of regression was measured, a while ago, by taking the root-meansquare deviation of the observations about the line, that is, by using S=crv/i--rz. In order to compare with this result the distribution of the observations about the more complex curve, y--a--bx--cx--dx3, the distribution about the latter curve will likewise be measured by the root-mean-square deviation of the observations. In the little table given below, the measures of scatter of the observations for the two types of demand curves are presented in a form that will make comparison easy. Scatter Of Observations About The Law Of Demand Root-mean-square Deviation Of Observations It is clear that in all cases a gain in precision is obtained by using more

Product details

  • Paperback | 30 pages
  • 189 x 246 x 2mm | 73g
  • Miami Fl, United States
  • English
  • Illustrations, black and white
  • 1236559312
  • 9781236559319