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Decisions Over Decimals - Striking the Balance between Intuition and Information
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Description
Become a confident leader and use data, experience, and intuition to drive your decisions
Agile decision making is imperative as you lead in a data-driven world. Amid streams of data and countless meetings, we make hasty decisions, slow decisions, and often no decisions. Uniquely bridging theory and practice, Decisions Over Decimals breaks this pattern by uniting data intelligence with human judgment to get to action - a sharp approach the authors refer to as Quantitative Intuition (QI). QI raises the power of thinking beyond big data without neglecting it and chasing the perfect decision while appreciating that such a thing can never really exist.
Successful decision-makers are fierce interrogators. They square critical thinking with open-mindedness by blending information, intuition, and experience. Balancing these elements is at the heart of Decisions Over Decimals.
This book is not only designed to be read - but frequently referenced - as you face innumerable decision moments. It is the hands-on manual for confident, accurate decision-making you've been looking for; the rare resource that provides a set of pragmatic leadership tools to accelerate:
Effectively framing the problem for stakeholders
Synthesizing intelligence from incomplete information
Delivering decisions that stick
Strike the right balance between information and intuition and lead the smarter way with the real-world guidance found in Decisions Over Decimals.
show more
Agile decision making is imperative as you lead in a data-driven world. Amid streams of data and countless meetings, we make hasty decisions, slow decisions, and often no decisions. Uniquely bridging theory and practice, Decisions Over Decimals breaks this pattern by uniting data intelligence with human judgment to get to action - a sharp approach the authors refer to as Quantitative Intuition (QI). QI raises the power of thinking beyond big data without neglecting it and chasing the perfect decision while appreciating that such a thing can never really exist.
Successful decision-makers are fierce interrogators. They square critical thinking with open-mindedness by blending information, intuition, and experience. Balancing these elements is at the heart of Decisions Over Decimals.
This book is not only designed to be read - but frequently referenced - as you face innumerable decision moments. It is the hands-on manual for confident, accurate decision-making you've been looking for; the rare resource that provides a set of pragmatic leadership tools to accelerate:
Effectively framing the problem for stakeholders
Synthesizing intelligence from incomplete information
Delivering decisions that stick
Strike the right balance between information and intuition and lead the smarter way with the real-world guidance found in Decisions Over Decimals.
show more
Product details
- Hardback | 256 pages
- 150 x 254 x 21mm | 530g
- 04 Oct 2022
- John Wiley & Sons Inc
- New York, United States
- English
- 111989848X
- 9781119898481
- 561,013
Flap copy
What distinguishes a person who makes smart, confident data-driven decisions? It is not exceptional analytic skills or rare expertise. Instead, successful leaders balance data, experience, and intuition. They quickly sort through information, apply judgment, and are fierce interrogators who cultivate sharp insights. They apply first-order principles to understand what the decision really is, why it must be taken, by when, and to what end. In short, they make intelligent decisions with incomplete information.
In Decisions Over Decimals: Striking the Balance between Intuition and Information, the authors--three seasoned executives and renowned educators--deliver a pragmatic blueprint to frame issues and navigate to data-informed answers. They marry original and insightful research with frontline experience to put forward a set of techniques called Quantitative Intuition (QI)(TM). The authors demonstrate how to bridge two skills--interrogation and intuition--or in plain English "context" and "surprise" to find answers without retreating into the comfort of more data.
QI is the product of years of discovery about making effective and efficient decisions. This book dives into this proven method to reimagine finding answers with the best available data while not wading aimlessly in a sea of information.
Decisions Over Decimals is not only designed to be read, but frequently referenced as the reader faces innumerable decision moments. It is the hands-on manual for confident, accurate decision-making you've been looking for; it is one of those rare resources that describes how to lead in a data-driven world.
show more
In Decisions Over Decimals: Striking the Balance between Intuition and Information, the authors--three seasoned executives and renowned educators--deliver a pragmatic blueprint to frame issues and navigate to data-informed answers. They marry original and insightful research with frontline experience to put forward a set of techniques called Quantitative Intuition (QI)(TM). The authors demonstrate how to bridge two skills--interrogation and intuition--or in plain English "context" and "surprise" to find answers without retreating into the comfort of more data.
QI is the product of years of discovery about making effective and efficient decisions. This book dives into this proven method to reimagine finding answers with the best available data while not wading aimlessly in a sea of information.
Decisions Over Decimals is not only designed to be read, but frequently referenced as the reader faces innumerable decision moments. It is the hands-on manual for confident, accurate decision-making you've been looking for; it is one of those rare resources that describes how to lead in a data-driven world.
show more
Back cover copy
PRAISE FOR Decisions Over Decimals
"One danger of 'big data' is giving managers a sense of impunity over outcomes. No decision is perfect. No amount of data is predictive. The authors--quantitative experts at some of the world's most admired companies--argue that information is no replacement for intuition. And they provide a framework of agile decision-making in today's hyper-fast, swollen market."
--JOHN GERZEMA, CEO, The Harris Poll, New York Times Bestselling Author, The Athena Doctrine: How Women (And The Men Who Think Like Them) Will Rule The Future
"In the spirit of lateral thinking, this is a modern framework for balancing data, experience, and creativity to make smart, timely decisions. The authors' concept of quantitative intuition, couldn't be more relevant for all levels and teams--understand the data, stop endless debate, apply judgment, take action."
--JEFF HANSEN, GM, Strategic Partnerships, Microsoft
"Using years of research and industry experience, the authors show how combining data and intuition, what they call 'quantitative intuition, ' can lead to smarter decisions. Decisions Over Decimals is a compelling book that should be on the reading list of every executive."
--SUNIL GUPTA, Professor, Harvard Business School
"Want to make better data-driven decisions? Then you need to read this book. Decisions Over Decimals provides tools and frameworks to combine intuition, data, and business acumen to achieve better results."
--JONAH BERGER, Professor, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, New York Times and Wall Street Journal Bestselling Author, Contagious, Invisible Influence, and The Catalyst
"Most books that encourage data-driven thinking throw piles of data at the reader. Frank, Magnone, and Netzer do something far more valuable: they teach how to make sense of all this data. After finishing this book, you won't just know new facts that might help you in a particular decision. You will have a new approach to make any decision."
--SETH STEPHENS-DAVIDOWITZ, New York Times op-ed contributor, New York Times Bestselling Author, Everybody Lies, and Don't Trust Your Gut
"Competitive advantage today is determined by whether an organization can make fast decisions but also high-quality ones. In this delightfully straightforward book, the authors take you on a journey to 'see' beyond the numbers, to move forward with imperfect information, and achieve desirable outcomes."
--RITA MCGRATH, Author of Seeing Around Corners, Professor, Columbia Business School
show more
"One danger of 'big data' is giving managers a sense of impunity over outcomes. No decision is perfect. No amount of data is predictive. The authors--quantitative experts at some of the world's most admired companies--argue that information is no replacement for intuition. And they provide a framework of agile decision-making in today's hyper-fast, swollen market."
--JOHN GERZEMA, CEO, The Harris Poll, New York Times Bestselling Author, The Athena Doctrine: How Women (And The Men Who Think Like Them) Will Rule The Future
"In the spirit of lateral thinking, this is a modern framework for balancing data, experience, and creativity to make smart, timely decisions. The authors' concept of quantitative intuition, couldn't be more relevant for all levels and teams--understand the data, stop endless debate, apply judgment, take action."
--JEFF HANSEN, GM, Strategic Partnerships, Microsoft
"Using years of research and industry experience, the authors show how combining data and intuition, what they call 'quantitative intuition, ' can lead to smarter decisions. Decisions Over Decimals is a compelling book that should be on the reading list of every executive."
--SUNIL GUPTA, Professor, Harvard Business School
"Want to make better data-driven decisions? Then you need to read this book. Decisions Over Decimals provides tools and frameworks to combine intuition, data, and business acumen to achieve better results."
--JONAH BERGER, Professor, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, New York Times and Wall Street Journal Bestselling Author, Contagious, Invisible Influence, and The Catalyst
"Most books that encourage data-driven thinking throw piles of data at the reader. Frank, Magnone, and Netzer do something far more valuable: they teach how to make sense of all this data. After finishing this book, you won't just know new facts that might help you in a particular decision. You will have a new approach to make any decision."
--SETH STEPHENS-DAVIDOWITZ, New York Times op-ed contributor, New York Times Bestselling Author, Everybody Lies, and Don't Trust Your Gut
"Competitive advantage today is determined by whether an organization can make fast decisions but also high-quality ones. In this delightfully straightforward book, the authors take you on a journey to 'see' beyond the numbers, to move forward with imperfect information, and achieve desirable outcomes."
--RITA MCGRATH, Author of Seeing Around Corners, Professor, Columbia Business School
show more
Table of contents
Preface
Prologue: The Certainty Myth
Quantitative Intuition (QI)
Why Combine Quantitative Analysis with Intuition
Biases from Working Intuitively
Biases from Working with Data
Chapter 1: Powerful Questions
Road to Powerful Questioning
Precision Questioning
The Power of Precision Questions
Building an Inquisitive Team Culture
The Smartest Person in the Room
Key Learnings from Powerful Questions
Chapter 2: Framing the Problem
IWIK: A Tool for Reasoning
The IWIK Process
Framing the Decision
Key Learnings from IWIKs
Chapter 3: Working Backward to Move Forward
Defining the Problem by Working Backward
Step 1: Create a Decision Tree
Step 2: Write the Blueprint of Your Delivery Using IWIKs
Step 3: Reverse Engineer Your Data and Analysis Map
Harnessing Inside- versus Outside-of-the-Box Thinking
Working Backward: Taking the Road Less Traveled
Key Learnings from Working Backward from a Decision
Chapter 4: Learning to Become a Fierce Data Interrogator
Part 1: Assessing the Data and Its Reliability
What Data Was Collected?
What Data Am I Not Seeing?
Can I Trust the Data and Analyses?
Part 2: Putting the Data in Context
Part 3: Pressure Testing Your Analysis
Key Learnings from Learning to Become a Fierce Data Interrogator
Chapter 5: Developing Intuition: The Power of Approximation
The Power of Approximations: Approximating Market Sizing
Learning to Approximate
Approximating in Practice
Why Guesstimation Works
Getting Comfortable with Approximations
Consider Approximation in Context
Statistical Significance Doesn't Mean Managerial Relevance
Guesstimation in the QI Framework
Key Learnings from Learning to Approximate
Chapter 6: From Analysis to Synthesis: Connecting the Dots
What Is Synthesis?
Make Your Bottom Line Your Top Line
Why Is Synthesis Hard?
How Do We Encourage Synthesis?
Moving from "What?" to "So What?" and "Now What?"
Key Learnings from Synthesis: Connecting the Dots
Chapter 7: The Decision Moment
Dimensions of the Decision Moment
The First Two Dimensions: Time and Risk
The Third Dimension: Trust
Striving for Measurement across Time, Risk, and Trust
Allocating Time
Measuring Risk
Measuring Trust
Reversibility and the Decision Moment
Navigating Ambiguity and Uncertainty
From IWIKs to Decisions
Key Learnings from the Decision Moment
Chapter 8: Delivering the Decision
The Story Arc in Decision-Making
Inner Voice and External Reality
Inform versus Compel
Key Learnings from Delivering the Decision
Chapter 9: Chasing the Decision
Why We Wind Up Chasing the Decision
Strategy 1: Create the Case for the Decision
Strategy 2: Frame the Outcome
Strategy 3: Classify the Type of Decision
Strategy 4: Reduce the Scope of the Decision
Strategy 5: Right Size the Decision-Makers to the Decision Moment
Strategy 6: Pressure Test Decisions
Strategy 7: Seek Consent Not Consensus
The Perfect Decsion Is an Illusion
Key Learnings from Chasing the Decision
Chapter 10: Building the Quantitative Intuition (QI) Team
The QI Skill Set
Building a QI Team
Your QI Role within Your Organization
Key Learnings from Hiring
Chapter 11: What's Next in Data-Driven Decision-Making?
Automation
Predictions and the Digital Twin
The Rise of Probabilistic versus Deterministic Thinking
Conclusion
EPILOGUE
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
INDEX
show more
Prologue: The Certainty Myth
Quantitative Intuition (QI)
Why Combine Quantitative Analysis with Intuition
Biases from Working Intuitively
Biases from Working with Data
Chapter 1: Powerful Questions
Road to Powerful Questioning
Precision Questioning
The Power of Precision Questions
Building an Inquisitive Team Culture
The Smartest Person in the Room
Key Learnings from Powerful Questions
Chapter 2: Framing the Problem
IWIK: A Tool for Reasoning
The IWIK Process
Framing the Decision
Key Learnings from IWIKs
Chapter 3: Working Backward to Move Forward
Defining the Problem by Working Backward
Step 1: Create a Decision Tree
Step 2: Write the Blueprint of Your Delivery Using IWIKs
Step 3: Reverse Engineer Your Data and Analysis Map
Harnessing Inside- versus Outside-of-the-Box Thinking
Working Backward: Taking the Road Less Traveled
Key Learnings from Working Backward from a Decision
Chapter 4: Learning to Become a Fierce Data Interrogator
Part 1: Assessing the Data and Its Reliability
What Data Was Collected?
What Data Am I Not Seeing?
Can I Trust the Data and Analyses?
Part 2: Putting the Data in Context
Part 3: Pressure Testing Your Analysis
Key Learnings from Learning to Become a Fierce Data Interrogator
Chapter 5: Developing Intuition: The Power of Approximation
The Power of Approximations: Approximating Market Sizing
Learning to Approximate
Approximating in Practice
Why Guesstimation Works
Getting Comfortable with Approximations
Consider Approximation in Context
Statistical Significance Doesn't Mean Managerial Relevance
Guesstimation in the QI Framework
Key Learnings from Learning to Approximate
Chapter 6: From Analysis to Synthesis: Connecting the Dots
What Is Synthesis?
Make Your Bottom Line Your Top Line
Why Is Synthesis Hard?
How Do We Encourage Synthesis?
Moving from "What?" to "So What?" and "Now What?"
Key Learnings from Synthesis: Connecting the Dots
Chapter 7: The Decision Moment
Dimensions of the Decision Moment
The First Two Dimensions: Time and Risk
The Third Dimension: Trust
Striving for Measurement across Time, Risk, and Trust
Allocating Time
Measuring Risk
Measuring Trust
Reversibility and the Decision Moment
Navigating Ambiguity and Uncertainty
From IWIKs to Decisions
Key Learnings from the Decision Moment
Chapter 8: Delivering the Decision
The Story Arc in Decision-Making
Inner Voice and External Reality
Inform versus Compel
Key Learnings from Delivering the Decision
Chapter 9: Chasing the Decision
Why We Wind Up Chasing the Decision
Strategy 1: Create the Case for the Decision
Strategy 2: Frame the Outcome
Strategy 3: Classify the Type of Decision
Strategy 4: Reduce the Scope of the Decision
Strategy 5: Right Size the Decision-Makers to the Decision Moment
Strategy 6: Pressure Test Decisions
Strategy 7: Seek Consent Not Consensus
The Perfect Decsion Is an Illusion
Key Learnings from Chasing the Decision
Chapter 10: Building the Quantitative Intuition (QI) Team
The QI Skill Set
Building a QI Team
Your QI Role within Your Organization
Key Learnings from Hiring
Chapter 11: What's Next in Data-Driven Decision-Making?
Automation
Predictions and the Digital Twin
The Rise of Probabilistic versus Deterministic Thinking
Conclusion
EPILOGUE
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
INDEX
show more
About Cj Frank
CHRISTOPHER FRANK is a Vice President in the Global Advertising and Brand Management team at American Express. He is a senior strategist at the intersection of marketing, analytics, and commerce developing superior strategies applied to global markets working with B2B and B2C products. He is the co-author of Drinking from the Fire Hose and an Adjunct Professor at Columbia Business School.
PAUL MAGNONE is Head of Global Strategic Alliances at Google. He is a leader in using technology and innovation to create and develop growth strategies for businesses. He has launched new high-growth businesses working in over 30 countries and has been an Industry Mentor in the NSF I-Corps (TM) Program. He is the co-author of Drinking from the Fire Hose and an Adjunct Professor at Columbia Business School.
ODED NETZER is the Vice Dean of Research and the Arthur J. Samberg Professor of Business at Columbia Business School. He is also an Amazon Scholar and an affiliate of the Columbia University Data Science Institute. Professor Netzer is a world-renowned expert in data-driven decision-making. His award-winning research is broadly read and highly cited. He has published dozens of papers in the world's leading marketing and management science journals.
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PAUL MAGNONE is Head of Global Strategic Alliances at Google. He is a leader in using technology and innovation to create and develop growth strategies for businesses. He has launched new high-growth businesses working in over 30 countries and has been an Industry Mentor in the NSF I-Corps (TM) Program. He is the co-author of Drinking from the Fire Hose and an Adjunct Professor at Columbia Business School.
ODED NETZER is the Vice Dean of Research and the Arthur J. Samberg Professor of Business at Columbia Business School. He is also an Amazon Scholar and an affiliate of the Columbia University Data Science Institute. Professor Netzer is a world-renowned expert in data-driven decision-making. His award-winning research is broadly read and highly cited. He has published dozens of papers in the world's leading marketing and management science journals.
show more
