Accuracy and the Laws of Credence
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Accuracy and the Laws of Credence

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Richard Pettigrew offers an extended investigation into a particular way of justifying the rational principles that govern our credences (or degrees of belief). The main principles that he justifies are the central tenets of Bayesian epistemology, though many other related principles are discussed along the way. These are: Probabilism, the claims that credences should obey the laws of probability; the Principal Principle, which says how credences in hypotheses about
the objective chances should relate to credences in other propositions; the Principle of Indifference, which says that, in the absence of evidence, we should distribute our credences equally over all possibilities we entertain; and Conditionalization, the Bayesian account of how we should plan to
respond when we receive new evidence. Ultimately, then, this book is a study in the foundations of Bayesianism.

To justify these principles, Pettigrew looks to decision theory. He treats an agent's credences as if they were a choice she makes between different options, gives an account of the purely epistemic utility enjoyed by different sets of credences, and then appeals to the principles of decision theory to show that, when epistemic utility is measured in this way, the credences that violate the principles listed above are ruled out as irrational. The account of epistemic utility set out here is the
veritist's: the sole fundamental source of epistemic utility for credences is their accuracy. Thus, Pettigrew conducts an investigation in the version of epistemic utility theory known as accuracy-first epistemology. The book can also be read as an extended reply on behalf of the veritist to the
evidentialist's objection that veritism cannot account for certain evidential principles of credal rationality, such as the Principal Principle, the Principle of Indifference, and Conditionalization.
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Product details

  • Hardback | 252 pages
  • 168 x 235 x 20mm | 508g
  • Oxford, United Kingdom
  • English
  • 0198732716
  • 9780198732716
  • 1,416,212

Table of contents

I: THE ACCURACY ARGUMENT FOR PROBABILISM; II: CHANCE-CREDENCE PRINCIPLES; III: THE PRINCIPLE OF INDIFFERENCE; IV: ACCURACY AND UPDATING
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Review quote

For someone who is interested in the relations among these principles, and how they might relate to veritism, this book is essential reading. It does not aim to convince, but instead aims to develop an overall view of a part of epistemology, and show how it fits together. It highlights the weak points, for the purposes of spurring the development of new arguments to shore them up. And it ends with a brief listing of topics for future work. For the general topic of
how evidential principles can be derived from a pure concern with truth, Pettigrew's book represents the state of the art. * Kenny Easwaran, Notre Dame Philosophical Reviews Online * Pettigrew's brilliant book contributes greatly to the systematic development and understanding of Bayesian epistemology and should be read by any serious student of the subject. * Erik J. Olsson, Metascience *
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About Richard Pettigrew

Richard Pettigrew is Professor of Philosophy at the University of Bristol. He completed his PhD in mathematical logic in 2008 under the supervision of John Mayberry. After that, he held a British Academy Postdoctoral Fellowship until 2011, when he joined the department of philosophy at Bristol. After his PhD, he worked mainly on topics in philosophy of mathematics, with a particular focus on mathematical structuralism. Since 2010, he has also worked in formal
epistemology, with a particular interest in deference principles and the role of accuracy in epistemology.
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