AIDS Epidemiology

AIDS Epidemiology : A Quantitative Approach

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AIDS has appeared in more than 130 countries, and over 100,000 cases of AIDS have been reported in the U.S. alone. More and more, the public will be depending on statisticians to provide answers about the future course of this epidemic.

This comprehensive work confronts the problems that are unique to AIDS research and unites them under a single conceptual framework. It focuses on methods for the design and analysis of epidemiologic studies, the natural history of AIDS and the transmission of HIV, methods for tracking and projecting the course of the epidemic, and statistical issues in therapeutic trials. The various methods of monitoring and forecasting this disease receive comprehensive treatment. These methods include
back-calculation, which the authors developed; interpretation of survey data on HIV prevalence; mathematical models for HIV transmission; and approaches that combine different types of epidemiological data. Much of this material - such as a discussion of methods for assessing safety of the blood
supply, an evaluation of survey approaches, and methods to project paediatric AIDS incidence - is not available in any other work.

This is an essential purchase for all AIDS investigators and epidemiologists.
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Product details

  • Hardback | 370 pages
  • 164 x 243 x 34mm | 717g
  • New York, United States
  • English
  • New
  • line figures and tables
  • 0195076419
  • 9780195076417

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The AIDS epidemic has spread worldwide, and nearly 300,000 cases have been reported in the United States alone. Statisticians and epidemiologists are called upon to design and correctly interpret studies on the prevention and control of disease caused by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and to estimate the magnitude and future course of the epidemic. In addition to a comprehensive discussion of methods for gauging the extent of the epidemic and forecasting AIDS incidence, this book presents methods and results concerning the risks of HIV transmission, the incubation period of HIV infection, markers of disease progression, prevention strategies, including strategies to protect the blood supply, and the evaluation of treatments and vaccines. These topics are presented quantitatively, with an emphasis on the strengths and weaknesses of available data. The book highlights how a naive statistical approach to the design or analysis of such studies can lead to seriously misleading results. The various methods of monitoring and forecasting HIV disease and AIDS incidence are given thorough treatment. These methods include back-calculation, which the authors developed; interpretations of survey data on HIV prevalence and incidence; mathematical models for HIV transmission; and approaches that combine different types of epidemiological data. Much of the material in this book - such as a discussion of methods for assessing safety of the blood supply. an evaluation of survey approaches and methods to project pediatric AIDS incidence - has not been previously published.
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Table of contents

1: Introduction
2: Risk Factors for Infection and the Probability of HIV Transmission
3: Surveys for Seroprevalence and Seroincidence
4: The Incubation Period Distribution
5: Cofactors and Markers
6: Screening and Accuracy of Tests for HIV
7: Statistical Issues in Surveillance of AIDS Incidence
8: Back-Calculation
9: Epidemic Transmission Models
10: Synthesizing Data Sources and Methods for Assessing the Scope of the Epidemic
11: Developing and Evaluating New Therapies and Vaccines
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Review quote

This book draws together the wide range of work undertaken by the authors on the statistical analysis of data on the human immunodeficiency virus ... drawing together an impressive amount of data with statistical methods for their analysis, while highlighting the many problems in interpreting results ... this book provides a clear and readable review of the statistical methods used to gain a better understanding of the AIDS epidemic, which will be useful to both
epidemiologists and statisticians. * Azra Ghani, St Mary's Hospital Medical School, London, JRSS, Series A, Vol. 158, part 2, 1995 * an impressive and authoritative account of the subject ... While the book is addressed to specialists, a general statistical reader who has not followed work on AIDS is likely to be interested and impressed by the wide range of ideas, techniques and special methods involved * D R Cox, Nuffield College, Pub of International Statistical Institute * the authors of the book under review here became the John Graunts of the HIV epidemic ... Working closely with the CDC, they were involved in the development of many of the statistical methods used in the analysis of HIV/AIDS data ... This book gives a careful description of these methods. In addition, it gives much of the quantitative history of the epidemic in the United States ... should be of particular interest to biostatisticians and epidemiologists who deal
with epidemiological data, but should also be of interest to infectious disease scientists who are not necessarily quantitatively oriented. I would recommend the book both as a text and as a reference. * Ira M. Longini Jr., Emory University School of Public Health, Science, Vol. 265, September 1994 * This volume presents the contributions that statistical science can make toward current studies in the prevention and control of diseases caused by the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), as well as estimating the magnitude and future course of the HIV epidemic ... the author thoroughly examine methods for monitoring and predicting the scope of the AIDS epidemic. * American Journal of Public Health, September 1994, Vol. 84, No. 9 * They have accomplished their goals with a very clearly written, comprehensive, and well organized book. This book should be read by all health professionals who need to understand the quantitative aspects of HIV/AIDS epidemics. It will also be a valuable reference book for anyone involved with clinical or epidemiological studies of HIV/AIDS. * Dr Chin, University of California *
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