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The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction

The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction

Paperback

By (author) Nate Silver

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  • Publisher: ALLEN LANE
  • Format: Paperback | 544 pages
  • Dimensions: 153mm x 234mm x 29mm | 798g
  • Publication date: 6 December 2012
  • Publication City/Country: London
  • ISBN 10: 1846148162
  • ISBN 13: 9781846148163
  • Sales rank: 38,117

Product description

Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future. Yet from the financial crisis to ecological disasters, we routinely fail to foresee hugely significant events, often at great cost. In "The Signal and the Noise", the "New York Times" political forecaster Nate Silver, who accurately predicted the results of every state in the 2012 US election, reveals how we can all develop better foresight in an uncertain world. From the stock market to the poker table, from earthquakes to the economy, he takes us on an enthralling insider's tour of the high-stakes world of forecasting, showing how we can use information in a smarter way amid a noise of data - and make better predictions in our own lives.

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Author information

Nate Silver is a statistician, writer, and founder of "The New York Times "political blog "FiveThirtyEight.com." Silver also developed PECOTA, a system for forecasting baseball performance that was bought by "Baseball Prospectus." He was named one of the world's 100 Most Influential People by "Time" magazine. He lives in Brooklyn, New York.

Review quote

"Nate Silver's "The Signal and the Noise "is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century (a century we thought we'd be a lot better at predicting than we actually are). Our political discourse is already better informed and more data-driven because of Nate's influence. But here he shows us what he has always been able to see in the numbers--the heart and the ethical imperative of getting the quantitative questions right. A wonderful read--totally engrossing." --Rachel Maddow, author of "Drift" "Yogi Berra was right: 'forecasting is hard, especially about the future.' In this important book, Nate Silver explains why the performance of experts varies from prescient to useless and why we must plan for the unexpected. Must reading for anyone who cares about what might happen next." --Richard Thaler, co-author of "Nudge " "Making predictions in the era of 'big data' is not what you might imagine. Nate Silver's refreshing and original book provides unpredictably illuminating insights differentiating objective and subjective realities in forecasting our future. He reminds us that the human element is still essential in predicting advances in science, technology and even politics... if we were only wise enough to learn from our mistakes." --Governor Jon Huntsman "Here's a prediction: after you read The Signal and the Noise, you'll have much more insight into why some models work well--and also why many don't. You'll learn to pay more attention to weather forecasts for the coming week--and none at all for weather forecasts beyond that. Nate Silver takes a complex, difficult subject and makes it fun, interesting, and relevant." --Peter Orszag, former director of the Office of Management and Budget "Projection, prediction, assumption, trepidation, anticipation, expectation, estimation... we wouldn't have 80 words like this in the English language if it wasn't central to our lives. We tend not to take prediction serio