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    The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't (Penguin Press) (Hardback) By (author) Nate Silver

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    Description"Nate Silver's "The Signal and the Noise" is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." --Rachel Maddow, author of "Drift" Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger--all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox" The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good--or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary--and dangerous--science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.

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  • Full bibliographic data for The Signal and the Noise

    The Signal and the Noise
    Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't
    Authors and contributors
    By (author) Nate Silver
    Physical properties
    Format: Hardback
    Number of pages: 534
    Width: 157 mm
    Height: 244 mm
    Thickness: 41 mm
    Weight: 816 g
    ISBN 13: 9781594204111
    ISBN 10: 159420411X

    Warengruppen-Systematik des deutschen Buchhandels: 17430
    BIC E4L: MAT
    Nielsen BookScan Product Class 3: S7.8
    B&T Merchandise Category: GEN
    B&T Book Type: NF
    B&T Modifier: Region of Publication: 01
    B&T Modifier: Academic Level: 05
    B&T General Subject: 750
    BIC subject category V2: PBT
    Libri: ENGM8000
    LC subject heading: ,
    Ingram Subject Code: MA
    BISAC V2.8: BUS069000, MAT029000, BUS086000
    LC subject heading:
    BISAC V2.8: SOC037000
    B&T Approval Code: A30180000
    BISAC V2.8: SOC027000, POL000000
    DC22: 519.542, 519.5/42
    B&T Approval Code: A51184000
    LC subject heading: , ,
    Libri: MARK7200
    LC subject heading: ,
    Libri: PROG2800
    DC23: 519.542
    LC classification: CB158 .S54 2012
    Thema V1.0: PBT, JBFZ, KCJ
    Illustrations note
    black & white tables, maps, figures
    Penguin Putnam Inc
    Imprint name
    Penguin Putnam Inc
    Publication date
    27 September 2012
    Publication City/Country
    New York, NY
    Author Information
    Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com.
    Review quote
    One of "Wall Street Journal"'s" "Best Ten Works of Nonfiction in 2012 "Mr. Silver, just 34, is an expert at finding signal in noise... Lively prose -- from energetic to outraged... illustrates his dos and don'ts through a series of interesting essays that examine how predictions are made in fields including chess, baseball, weather forecasting, earthquake analysis and politics... [the] chapter on global warming is one of the most objective and honest analyses I've seen... even the noise makes for a good read." --"New York Times" "Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War...could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade." --"New York Times Book Review" "A serious treatise about the craft of prediction--without academic mathematics--cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism." "--New York Review of Books" "Mr. Silver's breezy style makes even the most difficult statistical material accessible. What is more, his arguments and examples are painstakingly researched..." --"Wall Street Journal" "Nate Silver is the Kurt Cobain of statistics... His ambitious new book, "The Signal and the Noise," is a practical handbook and a philosophical manifesto in one, following the theme of prediction through a series of case studies ranging from hurricane tracking to professional poker to counterterrorism. It will be a supremely valuable resource for anyone who wants to make good guesses about the future, or who wants to assess the guesses made by others. In other words, everyone." --"The Boston Globe" "Silver delivers an improbably breezy read on what is essentially a primer on making predictions." --"Washington Post" ""The Signal and