Russia 2010: And What it Means for the World : the Cera Report

Russia 2010: And What it Means for the World : the Cera Report

Paperback

By (author) Daniel Yergin, By (author) Thane Gustafson

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  • Publisher: Vintage Books
  • Format: Paperback | 327 pages
  • Dimensions: 130mm x 200mm x 22mm | 380g
  • Publication date: 1 February 1997
  • Publication City/Country: New York
  • ISBN 10: 0679759220
  • ISBN 13: 9780679759225
  • Edition: Revised
  • Edition statement: Revised edition
  • Illustrations note: map
  • Sales rank: 1,594,839

Product description

What will Russia be like in the year 2010? What impact will the future of Russia have on the West? And what could we do now to help shape a better future? In this brilliant and illuminating book, Daniel Yergin, the Pulitzer Prize-winning author of The Prize, and Thane Gustafson, leading expert on Russian politics and economics, present four "histories" of the future for Russia and offer a vision of "capitalism Russian style." The collapse of the Soviet Union and communism is the most important event at the end of the twentieth century. But what comes next? Using the unique technique of "scenario planning, " Yergin and Gustafson explore what the "new Russian revolution" will bring. Which scenario will it be? Will it be The Two-Headed Eagle, a Russia that looks forward and backward at the same time; The Long Good-bye, the dissolution of Russia; or the Russian Bear, a grim dictatorship, anti-West and turned in on itself? Or will it be Chudo, the Russian economic miracle? The authors analyze the consequences of each scenario for the United States and other countries, pointing to possible surprises. Yergin and Gustafson provide essential insight into emerging power relationships, local wars that could turn into larger conflicts, the time bombs of ethnic strife that sit on Russia's borders - and the economic and political opportunities facing us in the future. Russia 2010 grew out of a confidential study developed for a select group of international companies by Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), a leading international consulting firm. Yergin and Gustafson focus on Russia's enormously difficult triple transition - from dictatorship to democracy, from communism to a market economy,and from empire to nation state. The authors envision the struggles ahead, as excommunists, scions of the security state, and defense industrialists vie with democrats and the new entrepreneurs for their share of Russia's future. Russia 2010 provides a framework for understanding

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Review quote

"Important... an intelligent and essential guide .... Whatever the West does should be done on the basis of clear-eyed knowledge of what Russia really is like. Reading this book would be a good place to start." -- Chicago Tribune "Original .... A text which will be of enormous help for all who wish to think open-mindedly about Russia's inscrutable future."

Flap copy

2010: Russia disintegrates as its frontier regions rebel or drift into the orbit of neighboring countries. 2010: Russia is invigorated by an economic chudo -- "miracle" -- that turns it into a thriving exemplar of the free market. 2010: Russia becomes a grim military dictatorship, bent on expansion. This brilliant and visionary book, which is based on a confidential report by the international consulting firm CERA, offers several persuasively detailed scenarios of Russia's future. Using the management technique of "scenario planning" and drawing on an extensive knowledge of Russia's political and economic history, Daniel Yergin and Thane Gustafson have produced a study that is already shaping the investment strategies of major corporations and that will become an essential text in the policy debates about the next century. Russia 2010 captures in a timely way the changes shaking Russia and the former Soviet Union after Communism. The result is one of those rare books that not only predict the future but have the power to change it.

Table of contents

Preface by Joseph Stanislaw The World Behind the Mirror Part One The New Russian Revolution Part Two The Battle for Power The Big Engine that Couldn't The Implosion of Empire Players and Prime Movers That the Guard Not Tire The Rough Road to the Market Part Three Muddling Down Two-Headed Eagle The Time of Troubles: Chaos and Reaction The Long Good-bye The Russian Bear Part Four Capitalism Russian-Style: 2010 and Beyond Chudo at Work—The New Russian Entrepreneurs: “Evident but Unbelievable” Surprises Part Five The Return of a Great Power with Angela Stent Who Pays for the Plowshares? Foreign Investors and the New Capitalists Russia and the West Appendix: Newly Independent States of the Former Soviet Union