Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming, and How to Prevent ThemPaperback Center for Public Leadership
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- Publisher: Harvard Business Review Press
- Format: Paperback | 336 pages
- Dimensions: 137mm x 206mm x 25mm | 318g
- Publication date: 1 May 2008
- ISBN 10: 1422122875
- ISBN 13: 9781422122877
- Sales rank: 382,510
Even the best-run companies can get blindsided by disasters they should have anticipated. These predictable surprises range from financial scandals to operational disruptions, from organizational upheavals to product failures. In "Predictable Surprises", Max H. Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins show you how to minimize your risk by understanding and lowering the psychological, organizational, and political barriers preventing you from foreseeing calamity. They then describe the powerful tools - including incentives and formal coalitions - that business leaders can use to ferret out and fend off threats invisible to insiders. Failure see what's coming exposes your company to predictable surprises. Given the stakes involved, this book should count among every business leader's most trusted resources.
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Max H. Bazerman is the Jesse Isidor Straus Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School. Michael D. Watkins is Professor of General Management at IMD in Lausanne, Switzerland, and co-founder of Genesis Advisers, a leadership development company.
Table of contents
Preface Acknowledgments Chapter 1: What is a Predictable Surprise? A Preview Part I. Prototypes of Predictable Surprises Chapter 2: September 11 - the Costs of Ignoring a Predictable Surprise Chapter 3: The Collapse of Enron and the Failure of Auditor Independence Part II. Why Don't We Act on What We Know? Chapter 4: Cognitive Roots: The Role of Human Biases Chapter 5: Organizational Roots: The Role of Institutional Failures Chapter 6: Political Roots: The Role of Special-Interest Groups Part III. Preventing Predictable Surprises Chapter 7: Recognition: Identifying Emerging Threats Earlier Chapter 8: Prioritization: Focusing on the Right Problems Chapter 9: Mobilization: Building Support for Preventative Action Chapter 10: Future Predictable Surprises Appendices