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The End Game: The End of the Debt SuperCycle and How It Changes Everything

The End Game: The End of the Debt SuperCycle and How It Changes Everything

Hardback

By (author) John Mauldin, By (author) Jonathan Tepper

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  • Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Inc
  • Format: Hardback | 336 pages
  • Dimensions: 160mm x 231mm x 36mm | 544g
  • Publication date: 3 August 2011
  • Publication City/Country: New York
  • ISBN 10: 1118004574
  • ISBN 13: 9781118004579
  • Sales rank: 43,724

Product description

Greece isn't the only country drowning in debt. The Debt Supercycle-when the easily managed, decades-long growth of debt results in a massive sovereign debt and credit crisis-is affecting developed countries around the world, including the United States. For these countries, there are only two options, and neither is good-restructure the debt or reduce it through austerity measures. Endgame details the Debt Supercycle and the sovereign debt crisis, and shows that, while there are no good choices, the worst choice would be to ignore the deleveraging resulting from the credit crisis. The book:* Reveals why the world economy is in for an extended period of sluggish growth, high unemployment, and volatile markets punctuated by persistent recessions* Reviews global markets, trends in population, government policies, and currencies Around the world, countries are faced with difficult choices. Endgame provides a framework for making those choices.

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Author information

JOHN MAULDIN is a renowned financial expert, a multiple New York Times best-selling author, and a pioneering online commentator. His weekly e-newsletter, Thoughts From The Frontline, was one of the first publications to provide investors with free, unbiased information and guidance. Today, it is one of the most widely distributed investment newsletters in the world, translated into Chinese, Spanish and Italian. He is regularly seen on TV and in national print media. President of Millennium Wave Investments, he is the father of seven children (five adopted) and lives in Dallas, Texas. JONATHAN TEPPER is the founder and Chief Editor of Variant Perception, a macroeconomic research group catering to hedge funds and high-net-worth individuals.

Review quote

'It's the freshest one hot off the press.' - Seeking Alpha, March 2011

Back cover copy

Praise for "Endgame""This is an extremely powerful, sobering, well written and highly accessible book. It will demonstrate to you why there are no painless solutions to the mounting debt problems around the world--something that too many people are yet to realize. It will take you on a well-documented journey through the debt super cycle, making stops around the world and at critical junctures. And it is a must-read for anyone wishing to understand the global debt dynamics and ways to protect against its bad consequences. "--Mohamed A. El-Erian, CEO, PIMCO; author of "When Markets Collide""No one has thought more creatively about the economy. Mauldin's weekly newsletter is a must-read and his book is even more important if you want to understand a rapidly changing world."--Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House of Representatives"Successful investors explore all possibilities. You should read this book so you can succeed in case the "Endgame" is our future."--Jim Rogers, author of "A Gift to My Children""I read everything John Mauldin writes. He travels the world and shares his financial stories like a good friend sharing a drink. Mauldin is that rarity--a skeptical optimist--who calls 'em straight and rewards his clients and fans."--Rich Karlgaard, Publisher and Columnist, "Forbes" magazineGreece is a basket case, Ireland on life support, and Japan a bug in search of a windshield. In the times ahead, the global sovereign debt and credit crisis will continue to spread like wildfire. And while no nation, developed or emerging, can escape the pain, the extent of the disaster and how it plays itself out will vary from country to country. "Endgame" provides the road map ahead.In "Endgame," authors Mauldin and Tepper: Reveal why the world economy is in for a protracted period of slow growth, high unemployment, volatile markets, and persistent recessionsReview global markets, country-by-country, detailing population trends, government policies, currency outlooks, and moreOffer investors practical advice on how to protect their assets through the worst of it and profit from emerging opportunities

Flap copy

"We all know we have seen the end of an era, and now we have courtside seats to watch the Endgame unfold. We are watching the end of Act I: The Debt Supercycle. Now we will get to see how Act II: The Endgame plays out."--John Mauldin & Jonathan Tepper (Chapter 1, page 4)Hundreds of books have been written about the financial crisis that engulfed the world after Lehman Brothers went bankrupt. But what if the bigger financial crisis is ahead of us, not behind us? As John Mauldin and Jonathan Tepper deftly illustrate in this controversial book, the crisis was more than a half-century in the making. The Great Financial Crisis, however, was merely Act I. Act II has now begun.The massive household deleveraging and historic shift of private debt onto government balance sheets now underway all over the world represents the end of a sixty-year global Debt Supercycle. We have now entered the Endgame, a time when bankruptcies and defaults (disguised as "restructuring") will not be of households and companies but of governments. The stakes are now higher. The coming crises will offer policymakers few good choices and many bad ones. It will require extraordinary clarity and courage from leaders, courage that so far is largely completely lacking. Yet, despite the authors' dark forecast, the message in Endgame is not all gloom and doom. The book lays out positive steps governments can take to weather the worst of the stormy days ahead, minimize the inevitable pain and discomfort most of us can expect to experience, and chart a bold new course to sustained economic growth and prosperity. It also offers investors an abundance of useful analysis and expert advice on how to protect their assets during the worst of it and prosper from the many new opportunities that will emerge globally as they present themselves.In Part 2, the authors take readers on a country-by-country tour--including the United States, UK, European countries, and Japan--clearly explaining the problems each country faces, as well as the good and bad policy options open to each, and the investment pitfalls and opportunities likely to be found in each national economy.Whether you call it the Great Recession, the Great Financial Crisis, or the Global Debt Crisis, what we are experiencing is unlike anything seen in eighty years. Now is not the time to succumb to panic and superstition. It is a time for courage and intelligent decision making informed by the brand of rational analysis and wisdom you'll find in Endgame.

Table of contents

Acknowledgments xiii Introduction: Endgame 1 Part One: The End of the Debt Supercycle 11 Chapter 1: The Beginning of the End 15 Chapter 2: Why Greece Matters 31 Chapter 3: Let's Look at the Rules 45 Chapter 4: The Burden of Lower Growth and More Frequent Recessions 73 Chapter 5: This Time Is Different 91 Chapter 6: The Future of Public Debt: An Unsustainable Path 109 Chapter 7: The Elements of Deflation 133 Chapter 8: Inflation and Hyperinflation 157 Part Two: A World Tour: Who Will Face Endgame First? 175 Chapter 9: The United States: The Mess We Find Ourselves In 181 Chapter 10: The European Periphery: A Modern-Day Gold Standard 215 Chapter 11: Eastern European Problems 233 Chapter 12: Japan: A Bug in Search of a Windshield 247 Chapter 13: The United Kingdom: How to Quietly Inflate Away Your Debt 261 Chapter 14: Australia: Could It Follow in Ireland's Footsteps? 273 Chapter 15: Unintended Consequences: Loose Monetary Policies and Emerging Markets 283 Conclusion: Investing and Profiting from Endgame 293 Epilogue: Some Final Thoughts 297 Notes 301 About the Authors 309 Index 311