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    The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto) (Hardback) By (author) Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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    Description"The Black Swan "is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don't understand. The other books in the series are "Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, "and "The Bed of Procrustes." A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, "On Robustness and Fragility," which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, "The Black Swan" will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. "The Black Swan" is a landmark book--itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb "The most prophetic voice of all.""--GQ" " " Praise for "The Black Swan" "[A book] that altered modern thinking."--"The Times" (London) "A masterpiece."--Chris Anderson, editor in chief of "Wired, "author of" The Long Tail" " " "Idiosyncratically brilliant."--Niall Ferguson, "Los Angeles Times" " " ""The Black Swan" changed my view of how the world works."--Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.""--The Wall Street Journal" " " "Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into."--"Financial Times" " " "Engaging . . . "The Black Swan" has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.""--The New York Times Book Review"


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  • Full bibliographic data for The Black Swan

    Title
    The Black Swan
    Subtitle
    The Impact of the Highly Improbable
    Authors and contributors
    By (author) Nassim Nicholas Taleb
    Physical properties
    Format: Hardback
    Number of pages: 366
    Width: 170 mm
    Height: 241 mm
    Thickness: 33 mm
    Weight: 635 g
    Language
    English
    ISBN
    ISBN 13: 9781400063512
    ISBN 10: 1400063515
    Classifications

    B&T Merchandise Category: GEN
    B&T Book Type: NF
    BIC subject category V2: HBG
    BIC E4L: HIS
    Nielsen BookScan Product Class 3: T5.0
    B&T Modifier: Academic Level: 05
    BISAC V2.8: PHI004000
    Warengruppen-Systematik des deutschen Buchhandels: 17400
    Ingram Subject Code: BE
    LC subject heading:
    BISAC V2.8: COM031000
    Libri: I-BE
    DC22: 003.54
    B&T General Subject: 610
    B&T Approval Code: A10302000
    BISAC V2.8: BUS000000, BUS041000
    LC subject heading:
    DC22: 003/.54
    B&T Approval Code: A29900000
    LC subject heading: ,
    LC classification: Q375 .T35 2007
    LC subject heading:
    Thema V1.0: KJM
    Edition
    Annotated
    Edition statement
    annotated edition
    Illustrations note
    CHARTS & ILLUSTRATIONS
    Publisher
    Random House USA Inc
    Imprint name
    Random House USA Inc
    Publication date
    30 April 2007
    Publication City/Country
    New York
    Author Information
    Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to problems of uncertainty, probability, and knowledge. He spent nearly two decades as a businessman and quantitative trader before becoming a full-time philosophical essayist and academic researcher in 2006. Although he spends most of his time in the intense seclusion of his study, or as a flaneur meditating in cafes, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University's Polytechnic Institute. His main subject matter is "decision making under opacity"--that is, a map and a protocol on how we should live in a world we don't understand. Taleb's books have been published in thirty-three languages.
    Review quote
    Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb "The most prophetic voice of all.""--GQ" " " Praise for "The Black Swan" "[A book] that altered modern thinking."--"The Times" (London) "A masterpiece."--Chris Anderson, editor in chief of "Wired, "author of" The Long Tail" " " "Idiosyncratically brilliant."--Niall Ferguson, "Los Angeles Times" " " ""The Black Swan" changed my view of how the world works."--Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.""--The Wall Street Journal" " " "Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into."--"Financial Times" " " "Engaging . . . "The Black Swan" has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.""--The New York Times Book Review"