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    The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a New Section: "On Robustness and Fragility" (Incerto) (Paperback) By (author) Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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    Description"The Black Swan "is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don't understand. The other books in the series are "Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, "and "The Bed of Procrustes." A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, "On Robustness and Fragility," which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, "The Black Swan" will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. "The Black Swan" is a landmark book--itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb "The most prophetic voice of all.""--GQ" " " Praise for "The Black Swan" "[A book] that altered modern thinking."--"The Times" (London) "A masterpiece."--Chris Anderson, editor in chief of "Wired, "author of" The Long Tail" " " "Idiosyncratically brilliant."--Niall Ferguson, "Los Angeles Times" " " ""The Black Swan" changed my view of how the world works."--Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.""--The Wall Street Journal" " " "Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into."--"Financial Times" " " "Engaging . . . "The Black Swan" has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.""--The New York Times Book Review" "From the Hardcover edition."


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  • Full bibliographic data for The Black Swan: Second Edition

    Title
    The Black Swan: Second Edition
    Subtitle
    The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a New Section: "On Robustness and Fragility"
    Authors and contributors
    By (author) Nassim Nicholas Taleb
    Physical properties
    Format: Paperback
    Number of pages: 480
    Width: 132 mm
    Height: 201 mm
    Thickness: 28 mm
    Weight: 340 g
    Language
    English
    ISBN
    ISBN 13: 9780812973815
    ISBN 10: 081297381X
    Classifications

    BIC E4L: BUS
    Nielsen BookScan Product Class 3: T17.1
    B&T Merchandise Category: GEN
    B&T Book Type: NF
    BIC subject category V2: KJM
    B&T Modifier: Region of Publication: 01
    B&T Modifier: Academic Level: 05
    BISAC V2.8: PHI000000
    Warengruppen-Systematik des deutschen Buchhandels: 27400
    B&T General Subject: 180
    Ingram Subject Code: BE
    BISAC V2.8: COM031000
    Libri: ENGM4900
    BIC subject category V2: GPF
    DC22: 003.54
    BISAC V2.8: BUS083000
    B&T Approval Code: A10302000
    DC21: 003.54
    BISAC V2.8: BUS000000, BUS041000
    LC subject heading:
    DC22: 003/.54
    B&T Approval Code: A29900000
    Libri: P0040567, WAHR5000
    LC subject heading:
    LC classification: Q375 .T35 2010
    LC subject heading:
    Thema V1.0: KJM, UYZM, GPF
    Edition
    2
    Edition statement
    2nd
    Illustrations note
    CHARTS & ILLUSTRATIONS
    Publisher
    Random House USA Inc
    Imprint name
    Random House Inc
    Publication date
    11 May 2010
    Publication City/Country
    New York
    Author Information
    Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to problems of uncertainty, probability, and knowledge. He spent nearly two decades as a businessman and quantitative trader before becoming a full-time philosophical essayist and academic researcher in 2006. Although he spends most of his time in the intense seclusion of his study, or as a flaneur meditating in cafes, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University's Polytechnic Institute. His main subject matter is "decision making under opacity"--that is, a map and a protocol on how we should live in a world we don't understand. Taleb's books have been published in thirty-three languages. "From the Hardcover edition."
    Review quote
    Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb "The most prophetic voice of all.""--GQ" " " Praise for "The Black Swan" "[A book] that altered modern thinking."--"The Times" (London) "A masterpiece."--Chris Anderson, editor in chief of "Wired, "author of" The Long Tail" " " "Idiosyncratically brilliant."--Niall Ferguson, "Los Angeles Times" " " ""The Black Swan" changed my view of how the world works."--Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.""--The Wall Street Journal" " " "Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into."--"Financial Times" " " "Engaging . . . "The Black Swan" has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.""--The New York Times Book Review"